EDHECinfra Paper
Cash Flow Dynamics of Private Infrastructure Project Debt

The objectives of this paper are to document the statistical characteristics of debt service cover ratios (DSCRs) in infrastructure project finance, and to develop and calibrate a model of DSCR dynamics.

For this purpose, we collect a large sample of realised DSCR observations across a range of infrastructure projects spanning more than 15 years, representing the largest such sample available for research to date, and conduct a series of statistical tests and analyses to establish the most adequate approach to modelling and predicting future DSCR levels and volatility.

Using these results, we build a model of the conditional probability distribution of DSCRs at each point in the life of infrastructure projects.