EDHECinfra Announcement
Report: Q2 2021 Covid-19 Revenue Forecast Updates
Publication date: 2021-07-13

The Q2 2021 release of the EDHECinfra indices incorporates the views and asset-level revenue forecasts of our team of financial analysts. This report updates the Q1 2021 report and is presented following the TICCS® taxonomy of infrastructure companies. Each quarter, the team reviews the revenue forecasts of 650 companies that are currently live in the EDHECinfra universe, based on the latest reports, historical data, sector knowledge and contributed data.

by Jack Lee and the team

Overview: further cash flow projection downgrades in the wake of the continued impact of Covid-19

Despite progress with the development and provision of Covid-19 vaccines, there is still little clarity on the evolution of lockdown restrictions in most of the 25 countries in the EDHECinfra universe. On this basis, the expected impact on the future revenues of infrastructure companies remains depressed for the next 12-36 months.

That said, the majority of the forecasts we made in Q1 2021 remain applicable, with the exception of those for airports and road companies.

IC6010 Airport Companies

In this quarter, we expect to make a further decrease in our revenue projections as compared to previous quarter. Industry-wide revenue passenger-kilometres (RPKs) were down 65.4% on pre-crisis levels (April 2019) as international travels still remain weak due to the tight travel restrictions in place (IATA, 2021a). That said, air travel demand improved in April 2021 when compared with March 2021, supported by a rebound in domestic travel. The recovery of domestic and international markets is dependent on future restrictions, vaccination rates and the risk-aversion of passengers (IATA, 2021b). We expect only a gradual recovery in travel demand in late 2021 with numbers not returning to pre-Covid level until 2023.

IC6050 Road Companies

In Europe and US, the decrease in revenue forecasts remain the same as Q1 2021. However, in Malaysia, revenue is expected to decline even further, by 10% in 2021 and 5% in 2022 when compared with Q1 2021. This reduction is due to the Movement Control Order and total lockdown imposed during 2021, which significantly restricts mobility.

Our Q2 2021 revenue projections for other sectors are unchanged from our Q1 2021 assessment.

As before, the most impacted segments are merchant (BR-20) and regulated (BR-30) companies. In the absence of long-term revenue contracts, these investments are susceptible to the impact of external events. By contrast, contracted business models (BR-10), have been far more insulated from the impact of Covid-19 on cash flows. Despite this, risk premia and discount rates have increased, impacting valuations of these firms too.

As of this quarter, companies in all geo-economic segments (TICCS Pillar 4) are included in our revision of the revenue forecast due to Covid-19, as the pandemic has spread.

The following table lists those industrial sectors that we consider to be experiencing the most material impact:

TICCS® industrial superclasses most affected by Covid
Code Name
IC10 Power Generation x-Renewables
IC40 Energy and Water Resources
IC60 Transport
IC70 Renewable Power
IC80 Network utilities





  • The information contained on the EDHECinfra website (the “information”) has been prepared by EDHECinfra solely for informational purposes, is not a recommendation to participate in any particular investment strategy and should not be considered as an investment advice or an offer to sell or buy certain securities.

    All information provided by EDHECinfra is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. The information shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorised purposes. The information is provided on an “as is” basis.

    Although EDHECinfra shall obtain information from sources which EDHECinfra considers to be reliable, neither EDHECinfra nor its information providers involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating the information (collectively, the “EDHECinfra Parties”) guarantees the accuracy and/or the completeness of any of this information.

    None of the EDHECinfra Parties makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained by any person or entity from any use of this information, and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. None of the EDHECinfra Parties makes any express or implied warranties, and the EDHECinfra Parties hereby expressly disclaim all implied warranties (including, without limitation, any implied warranties of accuracy, completeness, timeliness, sequence, currentness, merchantability, quality or fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to any of this information.

    Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any of the EDHECinfra Parties have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits), even if notified of the possibility of such damages.

    All EDHECinfra Indices and data are the exclusive property of EDHECinfra. Information containing any historical information, data or analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance, analysis, forecast or prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In many cases, hypothetical, back-tested results were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a simulation model and, as such, the corresponding results have inherent limitations.

    The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investable assets/securities. EDHECinfra maintains the Index and calculates the Index levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Index returns do not reflect payment of any sales charges or fees an investor may pay to purchase the securities underlying the Index or investment funds that are intended to track the performance of the Index. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause actual and back-tested performance of the securities/fund to be lower than the Index performance shown. Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the advisor’s management of actual client assets.

    The information may be used to create works such as charts and reports. Limited extracts of information and/or data derived from the information may be distributed or redistributed provided this is done infrequently in a non-systematic manner. The information may be used within the framework of investment activities provided that it is not done in connection with the marketing or promotion of any financial instrument or investment product that makes any explicit reference to the trademarks licensed to EDHECinfra (EDHECinfra, Scientific Infra and any other trademarks licensed to EDHEC Group) and that is based on, or seeks to match, the performance of the whole, or any part, of a EDHECinfra index. Such use requires that the Subscriber first enters into a separate license agreement with EDHECinfra. The Information may not be used to verify or correct other data or information from other sources.

    The terms contained in this Disclaimer are in addition to the Terms of Service for users without a subscription applicable to the EDHECinfra website, which are incorporated herein by reference.

    This site uses cookies to deliver the services you request, improve user experience and measure audience. By continuing to browse our website, you are consenting to our use of cookies. Find out more about this in our Privacy policy.

  • X